Quest departure from the mystery of Chinese economic data | macro | Manufacturing | Chinese economy

  Text / Sina Finance opinion leaders (micro-channel public number kopleader) columnist Chen Jianguang departure from recent Chinese economic data highlighted the phenomenon, to judge the operation more difficult macroeconomic。
For example, in July the general downturn in the major macroeconomic data, continued to decline, but the official manufacturing PMI in August, a record high of 22 months, to show good signs of economic; while July industrial profits rose, strong power output, but also with downturn in industrial production and investment declining trend in stark contrast。   As the July-scale industrial profits up 11%, growth accelerated compared to June percent, year on year growth of generating capacity increased from% to% in June, but more than the same period scale industrial added value growth of 6%, compared with June continued to fall percentage points。
The January-July cumulative investment in fixed assets fell% year on year, compared with January-June fell unexpectedly% percentage points below the heat is not reduced steady growth policy background, investment all the way down, away from the data concern。   What is the logic behind the chain of heavy fog?Economic situation in the end is to have stabilized or continued to slump?  Industrial production fell and electricity, a departure from the profit improvement worthy of attention is the aspect of industrial added value and strong decline in power generation, increase profits away from the mystery。
Data show that in July above-scale industrial added value increased by 6%, compared with the growth rate in June fell percentage points。
However, the above-scale industrial enterprises in July profits up 11%, growth accelerated percentage points higher than in June, the highest since the four-month high; substantial growth in power generation and electricity consumption, electricity generation increased from% year on year growth in June to% from% rise in June same growth rate of electricity consumption to%。
  In general, power generation and industrial production have a high positive correlation between the directional deviation from it is unusual。
This phenomenon, Bureau of Statistics aspect gives three reasons to explain: First, high-temperature heat resulting in increased power consumption, and second, floods have short-term adverse impact on industrial production, the three lower industrial consumption base。 However, in my opinion, the above three processing and interpretation of data still exists at the betrayals, the explanatory power is weak。   The first reason is the extremely hot weather cause an increase in electricity consumption。
Indeed, the high temperature to produce electricity for residential electricity and services will be affected, because of this, the power of urban and rural residents consumed July year on year growth accelerated from% to% in June, the tertiary industry growth rate of electricity consumption from year 8% in June accelerated%。
However, due to the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption accounts for only% of all electricity used, measure down, residents and the tertiary industry due to the high temperatures increased electricity consumption contributed only one percent of all electricity increment, it is difficult to hoist percent of electricity consumption due to this simple。   Of course, there explanation is that the second increment of electricity industry also has high temperature factors, such as this year's secondary industry to accelerate% year on year growth from consumption% in June, which the industrial electricity consumption growth accelerated to% from% the manufacturing sector accelerated consumption growth from% to%。
But I believe that the second can not be attributed to the increase in industrial electricity consumption caused by high temperatures, after all, compare previous years can be found in July 2010 was the hottest year of the same period in recent years, but the 2010 second industrial power and this year is significantly different, in July year on year growth slowed in June from% to% to% from where the industry slowed% consumption growth, the manufacturing sector slowed to% from% consumption growth。   The second reason is that flooding in some areas of industrial production had an impact。
However, according to the analysis of industrial production found in the affected provinces, provincial disaster situation and the situation of industrial production slowdown is not entirely match。
For example, according to the July disaster analysis report released by Ministry of Civil Affairs, Hebei, Hubei, Anhui, Henan disaster situation heavy, and this increased to four industrial provinces have only a slight deceleration, as%%%% respectively, than in June fell by 0, and percentage points。 Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Jilin, Beijing, Sichuan and other affected areas, even higher than the growth rate of 7 industrial output growth in June。
The sharpest deceleration not save the few affected areas, such as Xinjiang, Tibet, Hainan, respectively, 7 ,, industrial output decreased by 7 percentage points, can not be explained by the negative impact of floods。
  The third reason is the base effect。 According to Bureau of Statistics data, in July last year generating capacity% year on year slowdown。 But whether it is due to the low base effect in July this year, resulting in a greater increase in generating capacity?It still any doubt, according to the Energy Bureau data, in July 2015 generating capacity is 509 billion millions, in July 2014 generating capacity of 505 billion kwh, the figure% increase year on year growth, and announced – % discrepancy。
Of course, possible seasonal adjustment process, but the lack of data transparency, people can not help but question the interpretation of the low base effect。
  In addition, data from the industry point of view, 27 sectors, 18 industry growth rate of industrial added value increased consumption in the direction of the emerging products sell very well。
For example, 1-7 months, new energy vehicles grew%, sport utility vehicles (SUV)% increase, growth of carbon fiber reinforced composites%, the solar cell growth%% industrial growth, cell phones increase% increase% fiber。
At the same time, high value-added industry a good momentum of growth。 January-July, the radar and ancillary equipment manufacturing rose%, an increase of 39% tram manufacturing, aerospace vehicles and equipment manufacturing growth% growth% nuclear radiation processing, communications equipment manufacturing growth% growth% nuclear fuel processing, cell manufacturing growth 16 %。
  Investment continued to decline in influence of abnormal samples should be excluded Liaoning addition, the continued decline in fixed asset investment also continued steady growth with the current policy differ from。 Data show that investment in fixed assets dropped significantly in July, from 9% YoY in June fell% growth rate was the lowest level since 1999。 However, it found that the current fixed asset investment data is actually largely distorted by abnormal fell sharply in Liaoning Province。   For example, in the first half of this year, Liaoning Province, the cumulative decline in investment in fixed assets% year on year, compared to the financial crisis since, Liaoning Province, investment in fixed assets was once as high as 60% growth, Liaoning fixed asset investment data from 2015, they appeared cliff-style decline。 Among these reasons, there are factors of its own economic downturn, there are reasons for the statistics squeeze water。
For example, Liaoning Province fixed capital formation in fixed assets investment in GDP has been highly consistent data before mid-2006, but in 2008 Zhier 2001 gradually widened the gap four years, until after 2014, the gap between the two has gradually narrow, fixed asset investment data analysis abnormal fluctuations annoy the real situation of investment。
  In contrast, with the exception of Liaoning Province, other provinces this year, investment in fixed assets in the context of stimulating force of local governments finance, growth has rebounded。 From a national point of view the overall situation, Liaoning abnormal sample data disrupted the overall trend in other provinces, Liaoning Province after removing a substantial negative growth in the second quarter, investment in fixed assets (except Liaoning Province) remained relatively stable, from this perspective, fixed asset investment data, or in the role of steady growth measures, there have been signs of stabilization。
  Downturn in the credit data needs to consider the impact of the debt exchange In addition, the July credit data is also of concern。 In July of RMB loans increased by 463.6 billion yuan, representing a deceleration of one trillion yuan。 Among them, non-financial enterprises and government agencies and organizations loans decreased 2.6 billion yuan, the household sector loans increased 457.5 billion yuan。
If you press this data, the current real economy is almost no demand for credit, indicating very weak economic activity。
But in fact, I believe that the interpretation of data need to consider the impact of government credit debt exchange this year, more than 5 trillion government debt replacement, there are on average 4000-5000 trillion, and the amount of volatile monthly replacement。 Taking into account local government debt exchange impact on the monthly credit data, which is expected in July is so negative credit situation may not be as shown negative growth。
  In summary, I believe that, in analyzing the current Chinese economic data, it is necessary to combine a number of data to make a comprehensive interpretation。 For example, consider the actual situation of industrial production, the industrial added value data and production data, profits of industrial enterprises directional deviation from the data, the increase in industrial economic operation of positive factors, new momentum to accelerate the accumulation of the fundamentals unchanged, high-end subdivision Bank sector remains a high growth rate, actual industrial production will not such as industrial output continues to decline as pessimistic。
Similarly, the credit data excluding investment in fixed assets after the abnormal sample data, Liaoning, and consider factors under the debt exchange, the current investment and credit data may be slightly better than some of the actual data。   From this perspective, the current economic operation of industrial added value and not earlier, as investment pessimistic data, which can be seen from the August PMI rebound。
However, the risk can not be overlooked。
On the one hand economic structural problems are still outstanding, a real estate booming second-tier cities, housing prices continue to rise, there is crowding-out effect on the real economy, also in the second half of the next Fed rate hike background, increased the pressure on capital outflows and currency depreciation。
  On the other hand, space policy in reducing。 July plunged finance general expenses increased from 20% in June to%, M2 growth rate dropped from per cent in June percent, down% weaker fiscal, monetary, credit, new RMB loans in July year on year also an important reason for the decline in economic data。
  Considering the second half of the monetary policy, the domestic real estate market and face the risk of financial markets, overseas there are expectations the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the devaluation of capital outflows, the degree of monetary policy easing as good as the first half, the second half of the central bank is not expected to RRR rate cut, will continue to support the main orientation。 The fiscal policy, force earlier this year, fiscal expenditure in the first half on a rare deficit in the second half indicates that the limited space, the July general national fiscal revenue grew by only%, the central level fell%, or already have the signs。   In short, we believe that the current Chinese economic data, although not so pessimistic in July, but the policy is difficult to continue to overweight, there will be more stimulus occurs, it is expected that by the end of the macroeconomic indicators may be difficult to see improvement, prevent asset the task is still heavy foam。
In this context, speed up the side of reform supply surplus from resolving capacity, dealing with zombies enterprises, rely on market forces to promote the state-owned enterprises, private enterprises fair competition, reduce administrative examination and approval, urbanization strategy, and improve residents social security, accelerate reform, is avoid the inevitable requirement into the middle-income trap, regain growth momentum of the economy。