Deutsche Bank's favorite five indicators suggest the US economy is accelerating

US stock market center: Exclusive offer full industry sector stocks, premarket after-hours, ETF, warrants night network real-time quotes, nightlife network Finance YORK July 14 news, recently, extreme economic data is not reliable to the people left a deep impression, such as the US first quarter GDP data is + 0.1%, but the end result actually revised to -2.9%, it can be said to be worlds apart。Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank), chief US economist Joseph Laver Wagner pointed out that economic data will always be a major revision, not just GDP data, non-farm payrolls, retail sales, durable goods orders data, etc. The same is true。  In order to improve the reliability of the data, Joseph Laver Wagner presented in the report of his five favorite economic indicators, including senior lending officer employee withholding income taxes, motor vehicle sales, the Fed's survey, ISM manufacturing index and The first application for unemployment benefits number。The characteristics of these data is not to be amended, revised or even if there is very small amplitudes。  Deutsche Bank pointed out that the five indicators show that the decline in US Q1 GDP should not read too much into the US economy is in a significant improvement in the way。Figure 4 below, Deutsche Bank were these five indicators make interpretation: 1. Employee income tax withholding employee income tax withholding for the day of the high-frequency data can be directly reflected in employment, salary levels and long work。By removing the data after the noise and seasonal adjustment process, Deutsche Bank found that the data is beginning to show the job market is strong, and therefore last December and January this year, lower than the average employment data is not accurate。In the past three months, withholding income tax revenue growth has been higher than 5%, which means job growth at a very healthy level, and this trend be continued in July。1 employee withholding income tax 2. ISM manufacturing index and motor vehicle sales Deutsche Bank pointed out that, under normal circumstances, only in the case of improved employment and income prospects, households will purchase durable goods。US vehicle sales last month after years of seasonally adjusted rate of 1.7 million, is the highest since January 2006 level。In addition, the surge in motor vehicle sales also means an increase in bank lending, because cars and trucks are typically purchased by installment。Figure 2 ISM manufacturing index and motor vehicle sales 3. Senior lending officer Fed survey The survey mainly related to commercial bank lending standards, including the four main categories: commercial and industrial, consumer, commercial real estate, residential real estate。Data show that lending standards commercial and industrial sector has been significantly relaxed for mortgage lending standards residence has not eased, but Deutsche Bank expects due 3–5 Yuefen new and existing homes total sales at an annual rate increase of 32%, residential lending standards should will be relaxed。3 senior lending officer Fed survey 4. The first application for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks, the United States first apply for unemployment benefits average of only 31.20,000, just above the cyclical low hit in late May of 1000。The following figure shows, the first application for unemployment benefits continued to trend lower。Deutsche Bank noted that the current level of the first application for unemployment benefits corresponding to the number of non-farm employment is much higher than 200,000。Moreover, the number of sharply lower first apply for unemployment benefits means that the first quarter GDP data belonging to the abnormal, the job market is still significantly improved fundamentals。Figure 4 apply for unemployment benefits number (Shofu compilation)