Guizhou Moutai (600519) Company dynamic commentary: 1Q19 forecast results exceed expectations 19-year goal is easily achieved _1

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Company dynamic commentary: 1Q19 forecast results exceed expectations 19-year target is easily reached
Core point of view: The company issued a performance forecast, and realized a revenue increase of about 20% in the first quarter of 19; net profit attributable to mothers increased by about 30% each year.The revenue performance exceeded our expectations of the United Nations. Investment point of view: Revenue growth is mainly contributed by price appreciation: We tracked the increase in sales volume in 1Q19 mainly from the increase in direct sales ratios, the increase in non-standard ratios, and the recognition of some advance receipts.It is estimated that the average price of 1Q19 products increased by double digits, mainly due to: (1) the estimated direct sales ratio increased from 7% in 1Q18 to more than 10% in 1Q19; (2) the proportion of high-end Moutai such as zodiac and non-standard increased: after 1Q18Doge grass has a short delivery time and a low base. In December 2018, it was concentrated to deliver zodiac wine and other high-end Maotai, and the 1Q19 structural upgrade effect was significant; (3) 1Q18 confirmed part of the 17-year advance payment (819 price), resulting in 1Q18The price 四川耍耍网 increase effect was not fully reflected, and the ton price base income was not affected in 19Q1. Cross-quarter payment guarantees advance receipts, and cash flow conditions are good. It is expected that subsequent approval prices will remain high.According to the feedback from the channels, at the end of the first quarter, Moutai dealers have started to budget from April to June, while the same period last year was a monthly payment policy.The first quarter is expected to be received in advance, and the cash flow situation is good.The direct sales subsidiaries of the Group and the joint stock company may have direct sales channels such as supermarkets, cloud merchants, specialty stores, and direct group purchase customers.The channels are scattered, and the increase in the amount of investment will have a small impact on 杭州桑拿网 the market. Feitian’s approval price strives to maintain a high level. In 19 years of direct sales, the proportion of non-standards has increased, and it is expected to exceed the target.We expect sales in 19 to exceed 3 in 18 levels.In terms of products, the structure will be improved. According to grassroots research for 18 years, the non-standard proportion is 13%, which is about 4,000 tons. It is estimated that in 1991, it will be 5-6 thousand tons, accounting for 18%.From the perspective of channels, the proportion of direct sales in 18 years will increase, and at the same time, the decline and decline on April 1 will increase the 19-year performance. Market-oriented, unchanged, long-term Moutai can cross the cycle.Moutai has strong demand, tight supply and demand, breakthroughs in channel spreads, and redundant space for price increases.In terms of production capacity, the production capacity will be gradually expanded to 5 indicators in the next 3-5 years, and there is considerable room for volume growth.In the long run, Moutai’s strong brand power and scarcity of supply are at the top of the liquor pyramid, and it is still a good variety to cross the cycle configuration. Investment suggestion: Considering the direct management, the increase of non-standard ratio, and the reduction of interest rates, we slightly increase the profit forecast for 19 years. It is expected that the company’s revenue will increase 16% / 14% / 17% in 19-21; net profit will increase 21%/ 16% / 20%; corresponding PE is 25/22/18 times, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk warning: Macro fluctuations exceed expectations, food safety issues